Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ICP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 6.088296 6.703719 7.383471 8.195489 9.146475 10.234184 11.585925
2024-10-13 4.965462 5.741803 6.666094 7.867242 9.417288 11.395416 14.190332
2024-10-20 4.301868 5.128121 6.159793 7.577459 9.534810 12.242871 16.478094
2024-10-27 3.875712 4.726988 5.829213 7.411836 9.720777 13.143081 19.009945
2024-11-03 3.580149 4.450386 5.612155 7.344751 9.999640 14.193755 22.058435
2024-11-10 3.486850 4.426373 5.724208 7.745577 11.027722 16.635887 28.461131
2024-11-17 3.334733 4.302422 5.675270 7.888933 11.659078 18.550408 34.733928
2024-11-24 3.129138 4.083341 5.462837 7.743517 11.767125 19.510445 39.349608
2024-12-01 2.971015 3.919626 5.316318 7.682846 12.008104 20.786967 45.518516
2024-12-08 2.805970 3.733528 5.118901 7.512457 12.013895 21.563608 50.797120
2024-12-15 2.688202 3.609838 5.007910 7.475700 12.267362 22.962705 59.169719
2024-12-22 2.581702 3.496083 4.903109 7.436749 12.507537 24.401273 69.087132
2024-12-29 2.516756 3.450316 4.917425 7.639273 13.344872 27.822145 92.894820
2025-01-05 2.365442 3.262263 4.686177 7.367121 13.119641 28.326756 103.975700
2025-01-12 2.230119 3.091761 4.472246 7.105666 12.876022 28.716302 115.699038
2025-01-19 2.126264 2.965455 4.323991 6.955089 12.863906 29.834950 135.598725
2025-01-26 2.046173 2.872827 4.226697 6.894011 13.055543 31.722456 168.540056
2025-02-02 2.039292 2.898245 4.335384 7.258654 14.385409 38.407660 295.387762
2025-02-09 1.996749 2.861918 4.331287 7.388862 15.142662 43.521001 478.721615
2025-02-16 1.920376 2.764918 4.210802 7.256782 15.150713 45.433831 638.433428
2025-02-23 1.859760 2.691669 4.129243 7.201642 15.371621 48.567371 973.119343
2025-03-02 1.790028 2.599807 4.007896 7.046683 15.270695 50.063143 1353.221477
2025-03-09 1.740260 2.540025 3.943055 7.013234 15.536094 53.823934 2547.164665